Superstitious? Here is every NFL team’s luckiest day, time, and turf
- The New England Patriots win more games from Sunday kick-offs than any other team or time.
- 75% of NFL teams win more games from 1:00 PM kick-offs than any other time.
- All NFL teams have recorded more victories at home, reinforcing the idea of a ‘home advantage.’
For many sports enthusiasts, superstitions and game-day rituals are as much a part of the NFL as tackles and touchdowns. While fans might wear a particular jersey or insist on sitting in a specific spot, is a team’s success actually affected by a particular day, time, or even the turf they play on?
Sportsbooks comparison site SportsbooksOnline.com, analyzed the results of 5,928 NFL games spanning over a decade, to determine if external factors such as day, time, or playing surface correlate with a team’s likelihood of securing a victory.
This analysis shows that home games that kick off at 1:00 PM ET on a Sunday produce the highest number of wins for 75% of teams (24 out of 32 teams), including the New England Patriots, The Pittsburgh Steelers, and The New York Giants.
Conversely, teams such as the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles are observed to have a higher win rate on specific turf types, with 58% of teams winning more games when playing on grass than FieldTurf.
For five of the 32 NFL teams (Denver Broncos, Dallas Cowboys, Green Bay Packers, San Francisco 49ers, and Seattle Seahawks), Sunday home games played at 4:25 PM ET produced the highest number of wins. Among the teams analyzed, 60% had a higher winning rate when playing on grass than FieldTurf.
The remaining three teams (Los Angeles Chargers, Las Vegas Raiders, and Arizona Cardinals) experienced more wins when games kicked off on Sundays at 4:05 PM ET, with the Cardinals and Raiders winning more games on grass than FieldTurf.
The data also revealed that Tampa Bay Buccaneers, LA Chargers, Chicago Bears, Cleveland Browns, and Jacksonville Jaguars scored more points from away games than other teams. This may indicate the support level traveling fans give their teams when playing away from home.
Interestingly, the data also revealed that every NFL team has won more games at home than away, with the average home game win rate standing at 55.72%.
| NFL Team | Luckiest day | Luckiest time | Luckiest turf |
| Arizona Cardinals | Sunday | 4:05 PM ET | Grass |
| Atlanta Falcons | Sunday | 1:00 PM ET | FieldTurf |
| Baltimore Ravens | Sunday | 1:00 PM ET | Grass |
| Buffalo Bills | Sunday | 1:00 PM ET | FieldTurf |
| Carolina Panthers | Sunday | 1:00 PM ET | FieldTurf |
| Chicago Bears | Sunday | 1:00 PM ET | Grass |
| Cincinnati Bengals | Sunday | 1:00 PM ET | FieldTurf |
| Cleveland Browns | Sunday | 1:00 PM ET | Grass |
| Dallas Cowboys | Sunday | 4:25 PM ET | FieldTurf |
| Denver Broncos | Sunday | 4:25 PM ET | Grass |
| Detroit Lions | Sunday | 1:00 PM ET | FieldTurf |
| Green Bay Packers | Sunday | 4:25 PM ET | Grass |
| Houston Texans | Sunday | 1:00 PM ET | FieldTurf |
| Indianapolis Colts | Sunday | 1:00 PM ET | FieldTurf |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | Sunday | 1:00 PM ET | Grass |
| Kansas City Chiefs | Sunday | 1:00 PM ET | Grass |
| Las Vegas Raiders | Sunday | 4:05 PM ET | Grass |
| Los Angeles Chargers | Sunday | 4:05 PM ET | FieldTurf |
| Los Angeles Rams | Sunday | 1:00 PM ET | FieldTurf |
| Miami Dolphins | Sunday | 1:00 PM ET | Grass |
| Minnesota Vikings | Sunday | 1:00 PM ET | FieldTurf |
| New England Patriots | Sunday | 1:00 PM ET | FieldTurf |
| New Orleans Saints | Sunday | 1:00 PM ET | FieldTurf |
| New York Giants | Sunday | 1:00 PM ET | FieldTurf |
| New York Jets | Sunday | 1:00 PM ET | FieldTurf |
| Philadelphia Eagles | Sunday | 1:00 PM ET | Grass |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | Sunday | 1:00 PM ET | Grass |
| San Francisco 49ers | Sunday | 4:25 PM ET | Grass |
| Seattle Seahawks | Sunday | 4:25 PM ET | FieldTurf |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Sunday | 1:00 PM ET | Grass |
| Tennessee Titans | Sunday | 1:00 PM ET | FieldTurf |
| Washington Commanders | Sunday | 1:00 PM ET | Grass |
Patrick Corkery, Content Writer at SportsbooksOnline.com commented on the study findings:
“While skills and strategy are paramount, it’s fascinating to consider that seemingly trivial factors such as the day of the week or time of kick off, could be influencing team morale and the likeliness of a win.
“This study seems to provide compelling evidence for the power of a home turf advantage, with the data revealing that every team logged more victories on their home ground than when they played away.”
Credit to https://sportsbooksonline.com
Methodology:
Outcomes of 5,928 NFL games for all 32 teams over the past decade were aggregated, offering a comprehensive dataset for analysis.
Day-based analysis: The data was analyzed to discern on which day of the week each team achieved the most victories.
Kick-off time breakdown: The data was analyzed to pinpoint the most favorable kick-off times that led to the most wins on the previously identified days.
Turf type influence: Each team’s outcomes were categorized and compared based on the playing surface (either grass or FieldTurf) to determine any influence of turf type on game results.
Criteria for inclusion: In the final results, only days where teams had played more than ten games during the studied duration were included.
Sources:
NFL, Pro-Football-Reference.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is meant to provide fun and interesting insights into team performances under various conditions. SportsbooksOnline.com does not condone the use of these findings as the basis for any betting strategy.